(i) hardware manufacturers want to sell heavyweight PCs … they put all efforts into supporting Vista, but NOT into OSs that are light and work fine on smaller or older laptops.

(ii) Ubuntu is lame, and lacks drivers required to support those new laptops. The problem is actually getting worse as
newer laptops have more and more hardwired features. Not only internal to the laptop, but many external devices too — just today a friend tried hooking up his Nokia 6220 as an external drive, and got a “filesystem is not supported message” (yet it works fine on XP SP2). Life is too short to have to spend time adding/patching incomplete OSs.

(iii) Linux is surprisingly buggy on laptops. Sorry, dudes, but Windoze is more stable. I also find many things slower (eg wireless), or apps are just not the same (Firefox on Ubuntu 8.10 is out-of-date cf XP)

(iv) Linux fonts suck!!! I don’t want to hear about all the tweaks you could do … Windoze fonts are nice without you having to waste time. Even with all the expert tuning in the world available to you, Windoze fonts still render better. And if you disagreem and think Linux fonts are actually nicer than Windows …. then you are a minority …. MOST people (i.e. mainstream) disagree with you.

Sorry, Linux lovers: JUST GET OVER IT. If you love your Linux apps, do as I do:

a) buy a laptop which fully supports a MS operating system. Go for the entry-level OS. This OS is your best bet at stability and support of the basic environment

b) much of the Linux type command-line stuff is available with Cygwin.

c) have a Linux server sitting somewhere in your room, ready to serve your favourite apps via Cygwin/X or VNC

d) if you cant have a separate server, then run VirtualBox (or qemu) on your base MS OS with a Linux distro which will give you the least grief.

Yes, this means scurrilous hardware vendors such as HP, and the evil Microsoft, have won.

i would guess that out of every 500 new customer visit
the linux packages gets a quick 5 seconds glance.
for these customers i think they have no clue what linux is.

guessing again i’d say that every 1000 customer visit the linux package
gets a 2 -5 minutes lift up, hold, read and return package to
shelf again. these customers i think may have heard a little
about linux but have now idea what to make of it.

the sad thing that i have noticed is, of these customers most
have bought a pc with windows or bought the windows package.
they will then leave the store all happy sometimes with their families, all
shining with delight while passing a sign that is on top of the linux
stand with big printed words.
——————————–
“TAKE with you TODAY
UBUNTU Linux for FREE”
——————————–
we had 15 ubuntu packages to start with, now 3 months later
we have 9

i sometimes think maybe its down to marketing but now that i have
read your post. i know now that its not true but more like
its easier to stick with the devil you know (Msoft) then the devil you dont. (linux)

i love linux i use it all the time however i do run dreamweaver under wine.
none the less linux is the best OS that i have come across and will promote
it everywhere that i go.

thanks for the post
SM

A appreciate your points a lot and quite agree with them… Because when it comes to future you can not judge the things in accordance to the current scenarios and projecting them down the line..

But the best part to judge them is to see the real stat’s diversions which are making the curves altogether..

And altogether there is now doubt that future is leading towards open source…

#1 Dell, HP, Asus, Lenovo are all starting to ship Linux pre-installed. Yes, it’s just a niche market now, they’re obviously targeting the early adopters… but the seeds have been planted. That’s a huge change compared to just one year ago.

#2 New form factors are coming into play, especially the sub-notebook (Asus EEE, Everex Cloudbook, HP Mini-Note). Many of the manufacturers behind these products are putting a well-supported Linux distro (Ubuntu, Suse, Fedora) on them to cut costs.

#3 A few powerhouse companies are beginning to port and pay attention to Linux in small ways. Adobe ported Flash and then AIR to Linux, that’s huge. Just 2-3 years ago, Adobe could care less about Linux. Sun opened Java and made it work better with Linux (especially with Java 6). IBM made Lotus Symphony work with Linux.

#4 More and more applications are moving to the web where your OS doesn’t matter. See Photoshop Express for the latest and greatest example (using Flash/Flex which now does run on Linux).

#5 Canonical’s Ubuntu distro has gained such a critical mass of users, that Dell bothered to pre-install it on a laptop. Ubuntu is so popular, well-funded, and well-marketed, it could very well be the one that breaks through the clutter and gains mainstream marketshare.

#6 Most important of all, it is extremely difficult to compete with the price point of free. Especially when your product has as many criticisms and bad press as Windows. Have you read the article in Wired (about free stuff)?

Seeing that you’re writing your posts from a Windows laptop, maybe you just need to admit that you’re on the late adopter side of the curve? I’m writing mine from Ubuntu.

But who really cares?

At the end of the day both Linux and Mac fill niche, yet expanding markets; their users don’t really care that they don’t have the biggest market share because at the end of the day the computer suits their workflow and is not getting in the way.

It seems to me that the only people really worrying about market-share are Windows users.

Why?

Who knows? Maybe it’s the one thing they can say they do better than anyone else. After all 80% of the computer market can’t be wrong can they???

(@Amazed, jajaja seems Mark really shut you up)

I think you’re providing excellent fodder for my argument. If this kind of stuff was being written in 1997, then it’s amazing how true is still is a decade later.

I’ll predict that Mac OSX will gain some market share from Windows over the next decade. Linux on the desktop will still not happen for the masses. Windows will still be the OS on the large majority of PCs worldwide. By “large majority”, I mean at least 80%.

Note I said “PCs worldwide.” I am not talking about smart phones, hand held devices, or anything else. I’m saying Windows will remain the dominant desktop for PCs for the next decade.

When I write this article again in 2018, please come back and accuse me of cutting and pasting stuff from 1997.

Thanks,
Mark

Just for the record, I’m a Fedora fan.

Linux is also very serious in training people on basic and advanced linux system administration, which will help this generation’s Average Users.

Dell is also strong on their commitment to provide Linux-ready desktops and laptops.

John Robertson’s comment on third world countries migrating towards FOSS is true and is already happening. The high cost of owning a licensed Microsoft OS will eventually let them choose a better and safer Operating System that is FREE!

I was also an average windows user a few years back, a need to secure my system drove me to use and learn linux because windows just gives me limited options on securing my system.

Desktops are increasingly being displaced by laptops, or even small computing
devices like Apple’s iPhone. Laptops are becoming smaller and smaller, and
the small screens require a modified GUI to work well.

In my opinion, the Asus EeePC is the first mainstream Linux “desktop” success.
Dell and other competitors aren’t going to stand by and watch their market
share slip away. Look for more small form factor laptops powered by FOSS in
the near future. As competition builds in this space, intense pricing
competition will drive the “Microsoft Tax” out of the equation.

Besides, Vista has got to be one of the worst pieces of software ever to come
out of Redmond. If this is the best they can do, how hard can it be to take
away significant market share?

Anyhow I think thats enough of a rant for now.

You make some good points. You are right that Linux has no need to satisfy VCs by marketing products or providing a “liquidity event” to satisy their investment. Linux will never go out of business. Linux is my preferred server OS.

Windows might not be on top forever, but I do think it will take a long time to displace.

Mark

Re: #1: Customers currently buy PC’s with Windows pre-installed. So if they bought a PC with a Linux distro and Window manager pre-installed, then this point becomes moot. And – for the first time in years – they can now do that. There’s now a well-known, user-friendly, and mainstream distro (Ubuntu) that you can buy pre-installed on your PC (from Dell, as well as other sources). So this problem is no longer an issue. At this point a user can just buy “a linux PC” without needing to either know or care about these decisions.

Re: #2: True this is an issue, but it’s not an insurmountable one. Just look at how many people have switched to Firefox – a browser that’s “different” from IE. More than anyone would have thought possible upon its initial release. Sure, it’ll take time before a large number of people make the switch. But I’m starting to see more and more people feeling comfortable switching to Linux and other open source s/w.

Re: #3: irrelevant. There’s room for more than 2. People will switch to whatever satisfies their needs. There’s nothing that dictates that people who are looking for an alternative to Windows must choose Apple.

Plus, never underestimate the allure of cheap over expensive. No matter how you slice it, Apple’s stuff ain’t cheap!

Mind you, I’m not a zealot who’s ranting that “this is the year of the Linux desktop”. I’m just pointing out what I think are flaws in your argument – and your conclusion. I do think that Linux desktop adoption will grow – very slowly, but surely. Until one day people will wake up and it’ll be a major factor. Just like with Linux on the server. Linux has too much efficiency in its model of production, and in its cost of production. Think about it: Linux has no need to “rush” its adoption in order to satisfy VC’s. And it will never “go out of business”. It will always remain a player, and keep making itself better and better (and never increase its price!) until eventually more and more people will begin to realize it.