Months ago, I rummaged through the bargain bin at Best Buy and found Risk (the board game) for the PC. I used to have a lot of fun with this with my friends when I was younger, so I thought “what the heck!” and bought it.

Being a board game geek, math nerd, and computer programmer, I wrote a program to calculate the odds of winning Risk™.  My program ran through all the scenarios thousands of times, spit out the data, and I made some charts in Excel.

Without further ado…

Here is a chart showing your odds of winning a fight in Riskâ„¢:

risk_chanceofwinning.png

But what about after you win? How many armies can you expect to have left? This should be an important piece of your strategy.

Here is the chart showing your remaining armies after the battle:

risk_armiesremaining.png

You can download the source code for the program, too.  Here’s the link: Java program to caculate odds in Risk

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